Aloha,
I’m very excited to write about my latest paper (just submitted to the Astrophysical Journal), assembling a new compilation of SNe (“Union3”) and an updated version of my supernova Ia cosmology framework (“UNITY1.5”). https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12098
UNITY1.5 is a Bayesian model that enables treating outliers (occasional contamination from non-Ia supernovae), selection effects (brighter supernovae are more likely to be found), light-curve shape and color populations and standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. It gives somewhat larger (more conservative) claimed cosmological uncertainties than previous analyses.
Despite the larger assessed uncertainties, Union3+UNITY1.5 shows weak 1.7–2.6σ tension with ΛCDM and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (which could be a sign that some or all of dark energy is an unknown type of scalar field).
There is a lot of upcoming data to look forward to, and it will be interesting to see how this result evolves!
David Rubin 